Warrior Met Coal Stock Performance

HCC Stock  USD 87.08  2.16  2.54%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Warrior Met holds a performance score of 8. The firm maintains a market beta of 1.18, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Warrior Met will likely underperform. Please check Warrior Met's sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Warrior Met's historical returns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Fair

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Warrior Met Coal are ranked lower than 8 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather weak fundamental indicators, Warrior Met exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
2.54
Five Day Return
2.36
Year To Date Return
(2.76)
Ten Year Return
887.3
All Time Return
887.3
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0038
Payout Ratio
0.2936
Forward Dividend Rate
0.32
Dividend Date
2026-03-02
Ex Dividend Date
2026-02-23
1
HCC Analyst Rating UBS Maintains Neutral, Raises Price Target - GuruFocus
12/12/2025
2
Walter Scheller Sells 100,000 Shares of Warrior Met Coal Stock
01/14/2026
3
Acquisition by Walter Scheller of 74 shares of Warrior Met subject to Rule 16b-3
01/16/2026
4
Acquisition by Dale Boyles of 2612 shares of Warrior Met subject to Rule 16b-3
01/22/2026
5
NWF Advisory Services Inc. Has 5.41 Million Stock Position in Warrior Met Coal HCC
01/27/2026
6
Warrior Met Coal Is Down 6.3 percent After Blue Creek Ramp-Up Plans Draw Fresh Analyst Optimism
01/30/2026
7
Warrior Met Coal HCC Stock Position Lifted by Allianz Asset Management GmbH
02/04/2026
8
Disposition of 2261 shares by Dale Boyles of Warrior Met subject to Rule 16b-3
02/06/2026
9
Warrior Met Coal Cut to Hold at Wall Street Zen
02/10/2026
10
Warrior Met Coal Q4 2025 Earnings Preview
02/11/2026
11
Warrior Met Coal GAAP EPS of 0.44 misses by 0.08, revenue of 384M beats by 0.98M
02/12/2026
12
Warrior Met Coal Q4 Earnings Call Highlights
02/13/2026
13
Assessing Warrior Met Coal Valuation After Record 2025 Output And Early Blue Creek Ramp-Up
02/18/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow499.1 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-405.1 M

Warrior Met Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  7,507  in Warrior Met Coal on November 21, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  1,201  from holding Warrior Met Coal or generate 16.0% return on investment over 90 days. Warrior Met Coal is generating 0.2829% of daily returns assuming volatility of 2.5004% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 22% of stocks are less volatile than Warrior, and above 95% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Warrior Met is expected to generate 3.35 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 3.35 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.11 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.17 per unit of risk.

Warrior Met Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Warrior Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 87.08 90 days 87.08 
about 51.19
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Warrior Met to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 51.19 (This Warrior Met Coal probability density function shows the probability of Warrior Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Warrior Met will likely underperform. Additionally Warrior Met Coal has an alpha of 0.0325, implying that it can generate a 0.0325 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Warrior Met Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Warrior Met

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Warrior Met Coal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Warrior Met's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.5887.0889.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.37101.40103.90
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
87.2789.7692.26
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
92.97102.17113.41
Details

Warrior Met Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Warrior Met is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Warrior Met's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Warrior Met Coal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Warrior Met within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.18
σ
Overall volatility
7.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Warrior Met Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Warrior Met for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Warrior Met Coal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: TTE Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Production Ramp-Up Boosts Revenues

Warrior Met Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Warrior Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Warrior Met's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Warrior Met's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding52.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments353.2 M

Warrior Met Fundamentals Growth

Warrior Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Warrior Met, and Warrior Met fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Warrior Stock performance.

About Warrior Met Performance

By analyzing Warrior Met's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Warrior Met's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Warrior Met has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Warrior Met has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand3.1 K3.3 K
Return On Tangible Assets 0.02  0.02 
Return On Capital Employed 0.02  0.02 
Return On Assets 0.02  0.02 
Return On Equity 0.03  0.03 

Things to note about Warrior Met Coal performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Warrior Met for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Warrior Met Coal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: TTE Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Production Ramp-Up Boosts Revenues
Evaluating Warrior Met's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Warrior Met's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Warrior Met's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Warrior Met's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Warrior Met's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Warrior Met's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Warrior Met's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Warrior Met's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Warrior Met's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Warrior Met's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Warrior Met's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Warrior Stock analysis

When running Warrior Met's price analysis, check to measure Warrior Met's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Warrior Met is operating at the current time. Most of Warrior Met's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Warrior Met's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Warrior Met's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Warrior Met to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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